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CCData’s quarterly Outlook Report provides readers with a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of the digital asset landscape. This report reflects on the key events of the previous quarter while casting an eye towards the future, pinpointing emerging trends and potential developments in the coming months and beyond.
In Q1 2023, regulatory authorities stepped up their efforts to regulate the crypto industry, with centralised exchanges and service providers facing increased scrutiny. Despite this, digital assets rallied in the first quarter of 2023 with the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum rising 72.3% and 52.5% to $28,477 and $1,822, respectively — levels not seen since June 2022.
You can access the full Outlook Report here. Key findings have been outlined below.
Key findings:
In the early stages of previous market rallies, Bitcoin has typically led the market. Bitcoin’s market dominance has increased, rising to 45.2%, its highest level since April 2021. This is a substantial increase from ~36% market dominance, which it maintained during the collapse of FTX when its price dipped to a yearly low of $15,760.
To better understand Bitcoin’s current performance, it is helpful to examine its behaviour in previous market cycles.
In the previous two cycles, the accumulation period from the market bottom after the breakout to the halving date spanned at least 500 days. This would mean, if we were to assume that the market bottom for this cycle was in November last year (when Bitcoin hit a yearly low of $15,760), that we are only 129 days into the current cycle as of March 30th.
During the first three months of this year, monthly volumes averaged $932 billion, this is 16.8% lower than the 2022 average of $1.12 trillion. Furthermore, there has been a consolidation of volumes, with the top 8 exchanges accounting for a higher percentage (70.5%) of total volumes compared to January 2022 (Only 62.7%).
This consolidation has been advantageous for larger exchanges. For example, Binance’s market share increased significantly from 33.2% in January 2022 to 50.3% in March 2023.
Although average yearly volumes have decreased, when comparing Q1 2023 with Q4 2022, we see that centralised exchange monthly volumes have increased by 23.2%, from an average of $7.57bn to $9.33bn. Decentralised Exchanges (DEXs) have experienced a similar trend with a slight positive volume increase compared to centralised exchanges. As of the end of March, DEXs have recorded an average monthly volume of $97.0 billion, compared to $76.1 billion in Q4 2022, a 27.6% increase.
The impact of regulatory pressure on market liquidity has been noteworthy, particularly during times of significant calamities, such as the recent depegging of USDC. The exchanges that were analysed in the following chart indicate a significant drop in 1% Market Depth for BTC-USD and BTC-USDT pairs, with liquidity reaching its lowest point for USD and USDT during the SVB Collapse on the 26th of March.
Decentralised exchange liquidity, however, has experienced a notable surge. The largest decentralised exchange, UniswapV3, has seen its liquidity grow 208%, whereas Coinbase and Binance have recorded a decline of -6.35% and -13.4%, respectively.
Derivative markets accounted for an all-time high of 72.7% of total centralised market volumes, trading $2.77tn in March — highlighting the prominence of speculation within the digital asset markets. Decentralised derivatives exchanges have also seen an uptick in trading activity in recent months, trading $68.7bn in March, with dYdX accounting for 62.6% of the market share.
Visit our website here to download the full 2023 Q2 Outlook Report and learn more about the topics covered above, alongside even more analysis of DeFi ecosystems, centralised exchanges post FTX, macroeconomics and much, much more!
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CCData’s suite of market-leading trade, order book, blockchain, social, and historical data, spanning thousands of cryptocurrencies and 300+ exchanges, is also available via our API here: https://developers.cryptocompare.com/
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